United Discontent

Meeting Notes

Kissinger believes that the Israelis are in a panic and will
attack Iran. Erdogan has made it clear to him that he plans to
break with Israel at some point and reorient toward the Islamic
world. He intends to be their leader. Paul Volcker regards the
Greek crisis as potentially a mortal blow for the EU. He would
like to see an IMF tranche. He also said that Nicholas Brady is
behind both this and the Volcker principles Obama adopted. When
I asked Brady how he expects to get the the U.S. to go along
with an IMF bailout, he shrugged and said they won’t, but that’s
the only choice. Volcker is now doubtful the Euro can survive.
Brady is convinced it will. Kissinger thinks Volcker and Brady
are missing the real crisis which is in Iran and potentially
Russia. Volcker also says that the Bank of England and the
French will go along with the Volcker rules on an international
basis–that is returning to a variety of Glass-Steagal. The
Japanese will do whatever is said, and in Germany only Deutsche
Bank really makes decisions. Sarkozy told him he would come in.
So there may be an international convention on restructuring
banks under way–Volcker is pretty careful in what he says and
doesn’t promote himself more than the average bear, so this may
be the case. Nick Brady thinks so too.”

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November 2011 Email concerning Arab Spring

The true cause of the arab spring according to Stratfor

“Early 2011 was a dramatic period in modern Egyptian history. The
mainstream mediaa**s narrative on the Arab Spring portrayed popular
uprisings as the driving force that swept away the regime of Hosni Mubarak
and opened the door to democracy
. But a closer examination indicates that
the rules of the past still apply. Concentration of power, physical
isolation from the outside world, and dependence upon outside forces for
economic security remain the trifecta that drives Egyptian society and
governmental development.

To understand the Arab Spring one must first understand the factors that
led to it. This is a discussion that must begin, not with the aspirations
of those that protested in Tahrir square, but with the strategic
imperatives of the military, the true vanguard of the Egyptian state.

Nassera**s plan to elevate the military as the vanguard of society worked,
but in years after Nassera**s death the military itself shifted position.
Rather than partnering with the Soviets to create a regional sphere of
influence, the military evolved its vanguard position in Egyptian society
into a system of ossified control. The state still owned nearly everything
of worth, but it was managed by and for the benefit of the military brass.
Everything from banks to import/export to agriculture — already heavily
influenced by the military under the vanguard system — was consolidated
into a series of military oligarchies. Rather than working to elevate
Egypt economically, the military oligarchs mostly divvied up the local
spoils and lived large.

This was a stable system from the late-1970s until the mid-2000s.
Egypta**s shielded geography limited the ability of any international
economic interest to challenge the military staffsa** personal fiefdoms.
Egypta**s partnership with the Americans mitigated international pressure
of all sorts, and in many ways even Egypta**s ostracism from the Arab
world due to its treaty with Israel allowed Egypta**s generals to rule
Egypt however they saw fit.

As (now deposed) President Mubarak aged, however, an internal challenge
arose to the military oligarchy in the form of the former presidenta**s
son, Gamal Mubarak, who wanted to transform Egypt from a military
oligarchy into a more traditional Egyptian dynasty. Doing this required
the breaking of the militarya**s hold on the economy. Gamal and his allies
— often with the express assistance of international institutions like
the World Bank — worked to a**privatizea** Egyptian state assets to
themselves. This process was a direct threat to the militarya**s political
and economic position at the top of Egyptian society. The military also
viewed Gamal, who never completed his military service, as a political
neophyte, incapable of understanding and managing the countrya**s security
imperatives.

The result was the a**Arab Springa**. In the months leading up to the
January demonstrations, Egypta**s top generals were delivering very stern
ultimatums to the president to abandon any hope of passing the reins to
Gamal while looking at their options to unseat Mubarak via more
unconventional means. The military strategically positioned itself early
on in the demonstration as the honest broker and guardian of the
protesters, taking care to avoid a violent crackdown on the demonstrators
while Mubaraka**s internal security forces were vilified on the streets.
Such a light hand was not due to lack of capacity, but due to lack of
need. The demonstrations provided the generals with the means to dismantle
the Mubarak legacy, the biggest liability to their own livelihood, while
maintaining the paramount role of the military.

But perhaps the most central indication that the a**revolutiona** was
misconstrued comes from the participation levels. On the day that Mubarak
ultimately stepped down the protests reached their peak. By the most
aggressive estimate only 750,000 people — less than 1 percent of the
population of densely populated Egypt a** took to the streets. In true
revolutions such as that which overthrew Communism in Central Europe or
the shah in Iran, the proportion regularly breached 10 percent and on
occasions even touched 50 percent. In short, Egypta**s Arab Spring was a
palace coup, not a revolution.”


Method of Intelligence Gathering from about Chavezs health and manipulating Venezuela

If this is a source you suspect may have value, you have to take control
od him. Control means financial, sexual or psychological control to the
point where he would reveal his sourcing and be tasked. This is difficult
to do when you are known to be affiliated with an intelligence
organization. The decision on approach would not come from you but from
your handler. This is because you’re position is too close to the source
and your judgment by definition suspect. Each meeting would be planned
between you and your handler and each meeting would have a specific goal
not built around discussing the topic of interest which would ideally be
hidden but in analyzing him personally and moving toward control.
The justification for the op would be specific classes of information and
on gaining control the first step would be determining his access. If he
failed the test contact would be terminated.

some serious shit.

“the problem of analysts in the field is that they tend to want to discuss
the topic, which raises the targets awareness, rather than focus on
establishing the control relationship.”

“From: “George Friedman”
To: “Reva Bhalla”
Sent: Monday, December 5, 2011 9:26:02 PM
Subject: Fw: Fwd: INSIGHT – VENEZUELA – Update on Chavez’s health, power
struggle, etc. – VZ302

The problem with analyst sources is they are unqualified. This means that
we don’t have clarity on their sources and therefore can’t evaluate
accuracy. This could be valuable humint or pure rumint.

One of the reasons I want you to execute missions is to learn how to
evaluate sources. This is a very difficult art but one you must learn.”

The gut is to be trusted only after its well trained.
Wow that’s so true. This guy truely is trained.

the source has some interesting things to say too

“. The Cuban medical diagnosis is 2 years. The Russian medical
diagnosis, due to improper medical equipment, is less than one year. The
source on the medical team complains that Chavez is a very ‘bad patient.’
He doesn’t listen to his doctors, he ceases treatment when he has to make
a public appearance. Now the Russian and the Chinese doctors are going at
it because Chavez sought hte advice of a Chinese doctor that advocates
more natural treatments and the Russians are saying this is horse shit
treatment. only chavez can get the most politicized medical team in the
world.”

No surprise there

“Remember that there are four key players propping up the regime – China,
Cuba, Russia, Iran. All four are split on how to manage a post-Chavez
regime. China and Russia are more insulated, as they’ve tried to get away
from Chavez the personality, to preserving Chavismo, the regime. Russia
has set up a specific task force (note the Patrushev visits) to help
manage the post-chavez transition. Both China and Russia are backing
Maduro as their preferred successor. Cuba, however, is in trouble. They
can’t count on a Maduro to continue subsidizing them with thousands of
barrels of oil every day. No one is really paying attention to Cuba – they
can;t count on the Europeans for investment. Without VZ, they’re screwed.

Wow the Alliance is China Cuba Russia and Iran versus Central Europe

“Guess who has been most cooperative with us lately? The military elite.
These guys have been living the good life. They love women… lots of
women. THey love booze. They love bora bora. They are easy to bribe. They
dont care about chavez. they care about maintaining their current
lifestyles. We’ve seen a lot of these military elite reach out to us
lately, trying to insulate themselves in a post-Chavez scenario.”

These sick people use all kinds of methods to get what they want with the military elite.


Will Israel attack Iran?

On 11/7/11 7:54 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

Code: IL701
Publication: for background
Attribution: none
Source Description – Confirmed Israeli Intelligence Agent
Source reliability: Still testing
Item credibility: untested
Source handler: Fred

Source was asked what he thought of reports that the Israelis
were preparing a military offensive against Iran. Response:

I think this is a diversion. The Israelis already destroyed
all the Iranian nuclear infrastructure on the ground weeks
ago. The current “let’s bomb Iran” campaign was ordered by the
EU leaders to divert the public attention from their at home
financial problems. It plays also well for the US since
Pakistan, Russia and N. Korea are mentioned in the report.

The result of this campaign will be massive attacks on Gaza
and strikes on Hezbollah in both Lebanon and Syria.


Part of an email concerning ballistic missle defense and a war with russia from the ambassador of Czech Republic

From private emails sent on september 2011 concerning installing a basic missle defense system it is semi long but check it out

CE= Central Europeans
CZR= Czech Republic
Bmd= Ballistic missle defense
here is what i found interesting though: It encouraged a future war against russia with the united Central Europeans and the Czechs on their side

“This was simply
unacceptable. This was not good enough for us. CzR needs US military
on its soil, not a “research” center with no military and would have
to be paid for by the Czechs anyway. Completely ridiculous. So we
pulled out of any agreement to the current system.”

the check republic wants direct invovlement with US military instead of simply a basic missle defense center

“As far as the current talks between the US and Russia on bmd, most of
the CEs want to sabotage them. No one wants Russia in on bmd.
Moreover, no one wants the US and Russia to be friendly. The US needs
to quit with this reset-nonsense and move forward with a firm military
strategy in CE. The CEs want to move against Russia, but can’t do it
alone.”

They want to encourage the US to work against russia, similarly to vietnam.

They want F-16’s not tanks from us

“CzR wants a batch of F-16s like Poland. It needs supersonic. It
doesn’t really want the new Grippen. CzR is begging the US right now
for F-16s. The US said it would sell them, but at an exorbitant price.
They are far too expensive for CzR who has had to slash some of their
defense budget because of the financial crisis.”

of course they are going to slash prices to do it!

“It would be Romania, Slovakia,
Hungary, Bulgaria and maybe more for Poland – for 85 or so F-16s. It
would be interesting because then all of them could train together in
one country and then set up a repair factory in another country. The
countries would be tied together – and tied to the US. The US would
need to have military on the ground to train the CEs. This is the best
sort of security alliance between US and CEs.”

“If CzR can’t get bmd or the F16 deal, then it is done with any
non-Eurasian commitments to NATO. Period. If CzR can get bmd or the
F16s, then it will pretty much agree to any sort of military
commitment the US wants anywhere in the world. That is the ultimatum.”

the ultimatum given at the end is creepy

McFaul

On McFaul: everyone in CE hates dealing with him. He is deluded. He
believes that Russia can actually be pulled into being an ally with
the US. McFaul wants to use Regan’s gameplan. He constantly quotes
Regan. On a sidenote, in McFaul’s office there is a large (really
large, like4x3) photo blown up above his desk of McFaul, Obama,
Medvedev and Putin all sitting around the lunchtable smiling. However,
the way I heard it was that McFaul was scared to death of Putin and
stuttered the entire time.


Lauren Goodrich
Senior Eurasia Analyst
STRATFOR
T: 512.744.4311
F: 512.744.4334
lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
http://www.stratfor.com


Lauren Goodrich
Senior Eurasia Analyst
STRATFOR
T: 512.744.4311
F: 512.744.4334
lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
http://www.stratfor.com